The box office results are in and the movie business did extraordinarily well this holiday, an uptick from a year which overall saw a 4% drop in ticket sales. But the last minute rush bodes well for all in 2009.
The huge success of last month’s Marley and Me, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Yes Man, Bedtime Stories, and holdovers like Four Christmases and The Day the Earth Stood Still seem to indicate two things:
1. The assumption about the movie business doing well in hard times holds up and…
2. Older audiences may be what have made the difference
This year, as I’ve stated, will be your best year ever. Why? It’s because if there’s one thing 2009’s movie business will need it’s high concept, easy-to-see and make, castable, general-audience movies.
The very thing that Save the Cat! is about.
On top of this, if articles in Variety and Hollywood Reporter are any indication, there’s good business in the spec screenplay sales. I love the loglines of the scripts and pitches that are selling! These are ones that fire up my juices, ones where I say: Why didn’t I think of that? Kind of like the ones discussed in the very first chapter of the first Save the Cat! that pinpointed exactly how Four Christmases would attract talent and audiences based on its concept alone.
So if there is one really great way to end the year, it’s knowing this: your business is in a period where they need our scripts. Despite internal shake-ups, layoffs, and studio realignment, opportunity is everywhere.
It also means we have a mission: We get to lift spirits. Enlighten. Empower. Inspire. As well as entertain.
We’ve been waiting for this moment all our lives.
To help, take a look at this book in which I am proud to have had a small part. Writer’s Digest and Writer’s Market have created a resource guide just for screenwriters, The 2009 Screenwriter’s and Playwright’s Market — an amazing tool rivaling the handy Hollywood Creative Directory for names to query and approaches to try in 2009. Put together by my buddy Chuck Sambuchino, and with a fantastic article by writer Robin Mizell about Save the Cat! this is definitely a post-holiday stocking stuffer for yourself or your writing group.
I’m also pleased to report that our beat sheet workshops for January and February sold out fast, with some really top writers I can’t wait to work with! So we’ve decided to add a new class on March 7 and 8. Trips this year will include a return to London, Vancouver, Portland, Seattle and, hopefully, New York City. But we’ve also had inquiries from writers in Toronto, Chicago, and Washington D.C. If you’d like to be included, please contact Rich Kaplan ([email protected]), who is arranging the 2009 schedule now.
So. Set your clocks for 2009. Make a list of goals and aspirations. Be audacious in your spoken wishes.
And let ‘er rip. This is it! This is the greatest year of your lives! Let’s enjoy every minute of it!
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Oh, man, I’m totally bummed I can’t attend your workshop while you’re in Portland (I haven’t taken the Beat Sheet Workshop…unless the RWA conference counts)! I suspect you’re one of those presenters who are ALWAYS good to hear, regardless of how many times you’ve heard it before.
Hope the weather improves for your Portland trip, though.
I’m very excited for 2009, missing your workshop notwithstanding.
2009 really is off to a great start. I’ve been chatting with the FBI’s media relations office today and they are very generous with the information they make available to screenwriters who are doing research. It’s amazing the resources available to writers if we just know where to look (or who to ask)!
Hurrah! I was at a bookstore Saturday looking at books on selling screenplays and was feeling quite overwhelmed and voila! Brilliant timing.
I’ve read there were 87 spec sales in 2008. The majority were comedies. This blows my mind. I thought I recognized how tough it was to break into the business with an original spec, but this is really mind boggling.
If you consider that thousands of screenplays are written each year, then we’re talking about LESS THAN 1% being purchased. Then, consider that the majority of specs never leave development. Blake’s own success speaks to this unfortunate reality.
I’m not trying to be a grouch or a pessimist, but this is nuts! Seriously.
Since most film scripts start as novels, wouldn’t aspiring screenwriters be better served writing the novel first and then attempting to sell an adaptation? Particularly for dramas?
Or, wouldn’t it be better to start making inexpensive independent films with the goal of making a name for oneself and being hired to write on assignment?
What do you think?
More for the rest of us Matt! ;) I think you’re right, the odds are great, but that’s why we win big when we do. I also think if you poured over 1000 scripts only a few would pass the very basic test I pose in Chapter 1 of my first book titled “What is it?” And odds are you’d find the rest of those 1000 do not satisfy the other basic requirements we know make for a well-structured, saleable screenplay — drama or comedy. If you think raising money to make your own film will help, I applaud you! But Indie producers with a finished film will be faced with the same dilemma when they try to find a distributor– “What is it?” The odds are still tough. It’s 10 scripts written, 5 bought, 2 made on average for a really successful spec screenwriter. But you always have a few surprises: I have a script going into production this spring, and I’m planning to write at least one spec this year because the market is so encouraging!
Matt: 87 specs may have been sold, but who knows how many were optioned. Also, we don’t know how many of those unsold specs lead to assignments or re-writes. Don’t get me wrong, I rarely look on the brigh side of things. I just have a good feeling about things right now.
Cody
Hopefully I’m not speaking out of turn…
“I’ve read there were 87 spec sales in 2008.”
If that’s true, that must be mainly the major studios. That number can’t possibly include all the smaller prodcos and indie companies.
“If you consider that thousands of screenplays are written each year, then we’re talking about LESS THAN 1% being purchased. Then, consider that the majority of specs never leave development. Blake’s own success speaks to this unfortunate reality.”
The majority of scripts are crap. If you write good screenplays, you’re automatically in the top 1% of all writers. Which means you’re not competing against the bad writers, only the other good writers. That greatly improves your odds.
“Since most film scripts start as novels, wouldn’t aspiring screenwriters be better served writing the novel first and then attempting to sell an adaptation? Particularly for dramas?”
There are literary managers, like AEI, who are looking for talent to do exactly that. The problem is that writing novels and screenplays are two different skill sets. Some writers can do both; most cannot.
If you’re writing epic fantasies, it’ll be easier to publish a novel first, then write the screenplay after the rights are optioned. And since studios generally don’t buy animated specs, to write one you’re probably going to have to write a successful children’s book first, then option the film rights. Studios want an established audience for certain genres.
“Or, wouldn’t it be better to start making inexpensive independent films with the goal of making a name for oneself and being hired to write on assignment?”
Apparently, yes.
Blake,
What is your best estimate of the number of full-time feature film screenwriters working in the business today?
Matt, you may find the 2005 Hollywood Writers Report helpful:
http://www.wga.org/uploadedFiles/who_we_are/HWR07_tables.pdf
Go to page 2 and look at Table 3. “Overall Trends in Employment and Earnings by Group, 199-2005”
and on page 4 look at Table 8. “Employment Trends by Age Group, by Sector, 1999-2005”
So you’re looking at 1,800+ film writers employed at any given time. This may have been affected by the strike, so the numbers for 2009 may have shifted significantly. As the number of employed TV writers has gone down, it could impact the number of film writers. We’ll see when WGAw publishes their 2009 report later this year.
Blake, I believe you could easily fill a whole book on the subject of “What is it?”
As in the process that you do in your workshops of breaking down the idea (and the writer??) to shape the rough diamond into fine jewelry.
Whew!!! I think I’d rather spend my time writing than debating. Who cares what the numbers are? Just write your absoulte best work. After all, isn’t that the only thing you can truly affect? You can’t over-worry about the market because you can’t control it. But you CAN control how hard you work and the quality of story that you write.
It’s beneficial to see what’s happening in the industry and keep up with what’s selling. But again, even that should be a tool to help you write the type of story that sells, not to look at the glass half empty. To be up or down based on numbers is ultimately just a distraction – and wearisome! Either you love writing or you don’t. It all comes down to you writing something better than everyone else, anyway. To an extent, all the rest is filler.
Sure, there are tons of people who walk around without a clue and pay no attention to the important industry trends but I assume all of us here get that. I probably have less experience than almost everyone on this message board but I’m convinced that great, well-written stories have a chance. And that’s the bottom line. You write your arse off and give yourself a chance. Maybe I’ve got a rude awakening ahead of me but one thing I know: I’m fully enjoying this and if I never sell one script, I love it anyway. That’s just the way I look at it.
This ain’t Vegas. You can control what you write. As we say in the South: “Just write good.” (Yeah. A joke – just for the record.)
Your observation that most screenplays fail at the premise level rings true. Your positive attitude is contagious.
Blake you are categorically the most positive guy!
Thanks for inspiring me again and always!
Cindy
Blake you are categorically the most positive guy!
Thanks for inspiring me again and always!
Cindy
Regarding the issues Matt raised. I think key point is that if a writer produces something that is genuinely great, it will be recognized and that writer will be a success. That’s the essential faith you need to have if your ultimate aim is to be a commercial success. The next key realization is that even if you’re brilliantly talented you’re probably not going to get there immediately. My general feeling is that you will probably write somewhere around 10 screenplays before fully developing your potential. In a way, this can be considered your training period. Now, perhaps you’ll get very lucky and sell the first one out, but it’s unlikely. If it helps, you can consider that after you’re a success, you can go back and rework those initial writings, which can probably be mined for ideas.
I think everyone can agree that the ‘potential’ reward is massive. So if it’s something you enjoy, why not?…
Blake, would you be interested in teaching at The screenwriting Conference in Santa Fe (www.scsfe.com) this year?
– Larry –
Larry N Stouffer, Founder/Executive Director